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Share Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest After the first round of planting and heavy rains and colder weather shortly thereafter, farmers around Ohio have had to make some tough decisions about what to do with fields that didn’t do so well in the early going. Now that the calendar is getting ready to turn, the choices on what to do in those fields are becoming more limited. Account Manager Brad Ott talks about the replant decision process as June approaches in this week’s DuPont Pioneer Field Report.
Share Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest Market volatility has been reduced this past year for corn. This year’s low (so far) is nearly 30 cents higher than last year’s low while this year’s high was about 30 cents lower than last year. This kind of trend can be typical of abundant supply. Another sign of abundant supply is that spreads between futures contract months are wide, encouraging the market to store and hold grain.Storing old crop corn going into harvestLike many farmers, I still have old crop corn stored on my farm (33% of my production). Unlike most farmers in this situation my corn in storage is completely hedged with a short (sold) futures positions. Basis near my farm never rallied to the usual levels of the last 10 years. As harvest is approaching, I need to either move corn before harvest or continue to hold. Following are the questions that should be asked when making this decision. What is the market carry?Currently the spread from Sep ’17 to Sep ’18 is about 45 cents (where Sep ’17 is 45 cents lower than Sep ’18). This is the equivalent of making 12.5% return on investment ($.45 spread / $3.50 futures value). With an operating loan from the bank at 5%, it is more profitable for me to work with my bank and set up terms where I continue to sit on my grain in the bin and capture this carry instead of moving my grain and paying down the loan. How do you capture that market carry and get the bank to go along with it?The first and most important step is that I have to already have the grain sold/priced using futures. This allows me to show the bank that I have reduced risk and put a plan in place. Because I was already short Sep futures in my hedge account from my 2016 production, I had to get out of those futures by 8/30/17. Therefore, on 8/28/17 I bought back those Sep ‘17 futures and immediately sold Dec ‘17 futures at a 14.75-cent premium. Thus I have collected some of the market premium. Why Dec ‘17 futures and not Sep ‘18?I haven’t decided when I will actually set basis and move this old crop corn. I may need to move some before the end of the year, or late winter, maybe even next summer. If I hold until late summer of 2018 I could get 45 cents of market carry. Selecting Dec ‘17 futures helps me keep my options wide open. Is There Basis Risk?The basis price near my farm today is similar to levels I could lock into for later in the marketing year. To minimize risk, I could lock the basis in today and take the guaranteed market carry later. However, basis is the lowest I’ve seen in 10 years. It could go down further, but I’m not looking for that to happen with the information I have today. So, I expect to get the same basis as today or hopefully better down the road. Do you have enough available storage?I anticipated this possibility last spring; therefore, I put up additional storage. After calculating the expected ’17 harvest production, I can still store all of my upcoming harvest at home. With yields going up every year by about 1.5% in several years I’m going to need the extra storage anyway. In the meantime if the market is going to pay me to store grain I might as well listen and profit from it. My Final 2016 Corn PositionsWith a plan for my remaining basis levels secured I can calculate my final 2016 corn prices. Every year I analyze how well I did in futures, basis and market carry. Each of these marketing categories move independent of each other, so I want to identify each area of success and missed opportunity. I can then use this information to make better decisions in the future. Following details my final cash value by marketing category. FuturesMy first 2016 trade was placed in March of 2013 on about 5% of my production for $5.61. Following are other trades I placed against Dec ’16 futures:10% in 2014 for $4.30 avg.10% in summer 2015 for $4.40 avg.35% in Apr-Jul 2016 for $4.03 avg.20% in Oct-Dec 2016 for $3.42 avg.20% in summer 2017 for $3.77 avg.Combined and weighted, these values averaged $3.91 (brown in the chart below), which is better than any futures price available in the last year.But I also picked up additional premium by selling calls and working other option strategies during a sideways market. Those trades all totaled together increased my average sales values by 27 cents on my entire production. I applied this premium to my average futures value to arrive at an average futures sale price of $4.18 (red line on chart below)In hindsight, I should have sold more corn last summer at $4.40. However, I’m still pleased with these results. I didn’t hit any home runs throughout this, but I hit plenty of singles for a win. BasisAs mentioned above, 2016 corn basis was the lowest in 10 years. Consistent abundant supply kept pressure on prices.In early spring of 2017 I set my basis for summer delivery. At the time I was concerned a summer weather factor would create a strong futures rally, forcing basis to plummet and long lines at ethanol plants (like in previous years). None of this happened though.In hindsight I should have waited until the very end of August and delivered corn right before harvest. But considering carryout levels and trends of the past several years, expecting basis to reach it’s high in late Aug would have been a long shot.In the chart below I show where I set my basis.Notes: All bids are for on-farm pick up. Also, I remove the commercial freight rate off of the bids posted by the ethanol plant and shuttle loader from my farm and add back in any dividends I might acquire from selling to either location. I want to compare apples to apples when I look at bids. My final basis price was middle of the road. I could have done a bit better, but I could have certainly done worse.The chart also shows basis was higher in early 2017. If I would have set my basis for earlier delivery I would have missed out on my market carry premium, so that wasn’t a good choice for me. More details on this below. Market CarryMany farmers struggle with market carry. It can be a great way to guarantee additional premium, but to take advantage, I must have the grain sold to capture it.In November of 2016 I moved my Dec ’16 future position to Sep ‘17 futures and collected 30 cents of market carry (the red X on the green line in the chart below). By spring I set my basis for June/July delivery. Ultimately my basis sale was against July futures. By doing this, I missed/loss 8 cents when I had to rolled my Sep futures position back to July to offset the basis sale I made (the red X on the brown line in chart below). My total market carry ended up only as a net of 22 cents of premium.As I mentioned above, setting basis earlier would have taken away market carry premium. If I moved the corn in April/May, I would have lost 17 cents of carry instead of 8. A good rule of thumb, a slightly lower basis with more market carry is usually the better trade.Overall the market carry I collected was about on the average of what I have collected over the last 10 years. SummaryMy final corn cash price:$4.18 Futures+$.22 Market Carry+-$.44 Basis (farm pickup)$3.96 Cash PriceBased upon conversations with some farmers near my farm in southeast Nebraska, many took an average of $3.50 cash on their entire corn crop in 2016, so I’m pleased with my final price.Grain marketing is not simple or easy. If you want to do it right and minimize your risk, it can be complex and time-consuming. The problem is that farmers have a lot of responsibilities and far too little time. Therefore, the amount of time many farmers should be using to developing a strong grain marketing strategy is sacrificed. Instead these farmers prefer to make it quick and simple. By doing this though, these farmers add significantly more risk to their farm operation without even knowing or understanding because risk is hard to comprehend and define. To complicate this, occasional market timing luck by farmers can lead to false hubris that they have a solid grain marketing strategy when they probably don’t.In all trades for my farm the amount of risk I’m taking on is thoroughly analyzed and understood. By doing this, I may not hit home runs, but I’m getting on base most of the time while avoiding the strikeout. This keeps my farm operation profitable year after year.Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. He can be contacted at [email protected]
Google and the entertainment industry have long had a complex relationship. After years of taking heat from the MPPA and RIAA, the search giant is desperately trying to shed its reputation as an accomplice to copyright infringement. Why? Well, avoiding billion dollar lawsuits like the one Viacom filed (unsuccessfully) a few years ago would be nice. But Google also wants to be on good terms with the music and movie industries so it can strike content deals that will help products like YouTube, Google Music and Google TV to thrive. The company still gets the majority of its revenue from search ads, a reality it knows won’t last forever. The changes started off small but are now getting more serious as content becomes a more important focus for Google’s business. Still, even after some of the most significant changes, the record industry and Hollywood tend to fire back complaining that they don’t go far enough. That happened again this week when the RIAA put out a report questioning the effectiveness of Google’s search results tweaks. As our own Brian Proffitt demonstrated with some test searches, the RIAA might have a point. But Google is trying. It has a delicate balance to strike between the interests of copyright holders and the users who generate more than a trillion search queries every year. It’s eager to please the content industry, but has to roll these changes out gradually to avoid a mass user freakout. So how has Google altered its search engine and other products to cater to big copyright? Here are four notable recent examples: 1. Blacklisting Terms From Autocomplete and Google InstantIn January 2011, Google started blocking certain terms from its Autocomplete and Google Instant features. Rather than undertaking the full-blown search results censorship the entertainment industry wanted, Google decided to meet them half way and at least stop recommending piracy-related search terms to people. Since then, the list of forbidden terms has grown. Even Megaupload is still blocked from Autocomplete, even though that site was seized by the U.S. government over a year ago. Tags:#copyright#Google#mpaa#piracy#riaa 8 Best WordPress Hosting Solutions on the Market A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai… Granting DMCA takedown requests is one thing. What the content industry has wanted all along was a deeper, algorithmic change to Google’s search results. In August, they got their wish. In its most radical anti-piracy move yet, Google added copyright takedown requests to the more than 200 signals it uses to rank and index search results. That is, if a site gets a high number of “valid copyright removal notices,” it may wind up taking an SEO hit as a result. Not surprisingly, the RIAA was quick to cry “not good enough!” only six months after the admittedly measured changes were made. 4. Next Up: Defunding Piracy Sites To quell any remaining doubts that it’s serious about piracy, Google is about to cave into another long-held entertainment industry wish. According to the Telegraph, Google is currently in talks with MasterCard, Visa and PayPal to cut off funding to sites that engage in copyright infringement. The report is short on details, but presumably such a tactic would be reserved for some of the worst offenders, especially those who dodge takedown requests or operate in other jurisdictions. This is an unconfirmed report, and one that reveals only discussions, not action. If Google does proceed with this one, it’s anybody’s guess what the timeline might look like. Of the changes that have been implemented, each one is decidedly measured. Google can’t quite afford to go nuclear with its antipiracy efforts, much to the chagrin of the industry. This is going to be an evolutionary and thoroughly imperfect process. As the business incentives and industry pressures mount, expect to see Google make increasingly aggressive moves. And, like clockwork, expect the RIAA’s complaints to keep coming. john paul titlow Overall results are mixed. If I type “hurt locker torrent” into the search bar, it doesn’t show me instant search results (nor did it attempt to autocomplete the phrase). But “torrent hurt locker” is another story. That returns links to torrents for the popular movie, followed by an article about how the film’s makers sued thousands of BitTorrent users. Careful!2. Streamlining The Copyright Takedown Process (SometimesTo A Questionable Degree)When you run a user-generated content site as massive as YouTube, you have to be capable of handing potentially millions of copyright complaints. To keep up with the never-ending flood of complaints, Google has progressively made it easier to file them. Its Content ID feature lets copyright owners supply YouTube with audio or video reference files that the system then uses to automatically identify infringing content and flag it for further action. As you can imagine, Content ID has resulted in some highly questionable takedown requests. So last year Google implemented an appeal process to help minimize frivolous takedowns. Of course, even with protections in place, eyebrow-raising takedown requests are still granted from time to time. Google also now claims to be responding to copyright takedown notices within 24 hours, a promise it made to the content industry a few years ago. 3. Tweaking Actual Search Results To Discourage Piracy The content industry has long wanted Google to not just tweak search suggestions, but to actually remove and downplay results that lead to infringing content. For years, Mountain View was unwilling to tinker with the secret algorithm that bulldozes billions of dollars into the company every year. As big content companies become more valuable potential allies, Google has warmed up to the idea. Google is constantly bombarded with requests to removed URLs from its search results on copyright grounds. In 2012, the company pulled 50 million infringing links from its index. In the last few months, the number of requests have skyrocketed, so it’s likely we’ll see even more links de-indexed in 2013. Related Posts Top Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting Why Tech Companies Need Simpler Terms of Servic…
Nonong Araneta re-elected as PFF president Read Next Trending Articles PLAY LIST 00:50Trending Articles00:50Trending Articles02:12San Beda, Lyceum early favorites ahead of NCAA Season 9301:37Protesters burn down Iran consulate in Najaf01:47Panelo casts doubts on Robredo’s drug war ‘discoveries’01:29Police teams find crossbows, bows in HK university01:35Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games NU, UP dominate their way to finals berths in UAAP badminton For the complete collegiate sports coverage including scores, schedules and stories, visit Inquirer Varsity. The senior guard fired nine of his 22 points in the payoff period, to go with four rebounds, four assists, and a steal in the win.“During our last huddle, coach was telling us that this is for JP (Nieles). He gave his all and that happened, so we didn’t let this game go,” shared Estrella as the team dedicated the win to their teammate JP Nieles, who hurt his left knee with 5:16 left in the fourth quarter.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSWATCH: Drones light up sky in final leg of SEA Games torch runSPORTSSEA Games: Philippines picks up 1st win in men’s water poloSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutoutMapua faced a 64-57 deficit halfway through the fourth quarter, but Estrella scored seven of the Cardinals’ last 11 points, none bigger than his go-ahead trey at the top of the key with 20.6 seconds to go to give his side a 74-71 lead.GJ Ylagan tried to tie the game, but his trey went in-and-out, which led to Leo Gabo scoring the dagger layup with 10.6 ticks on the clock. BSP sees higher prices in November, but expects stronger peso, low rice costs to put up fight Brace for potentially devastating typhoon approaching PH – NDRRMC LATEST STORIES Typhoon Kammuri accelerates, gains strength en route to PH Fire hits houses in Mandaluyong City Frontrow holds fun run to raise funds for young cancer patients The Scores:MAPUA 76 – Estrella 22, Buñag 19, Victoria 14, Aguirre 9, Gabo 6, Raflores 6, Jimenez 0, Nieles 0, Orquina 0, Pelayo 0.PERPETUAL 71 – Ylagan 22, Pido 18, Eze 15, Sadiwa 5, Yuhico 5, Lucente 4, Dagangon 2, Clemente 0, Coronel 0, Mangalino 0, Tamayo 0.Quarters: 22-17, 38-42, 55-55, 76-71. MOST READ Fire hits houses in Mandaluyong City Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Christian Buñag chimed in 19 markers and 14 boards, while Laurenz Victoria got 14 points, nine rebounds, and five assists for Mapua.The Cardinals moved up to ninth place in the team standings with their 3-12 card.Perpetual suffered its fifth straight defeat and fell down to 4-11 in the battle of also-rans.Ylagan topped the Altas with 22 points and six rebounds, while Keith Pido got 18 markers and six boards.Prince Eze tallied 15 points and 14 rebounds in the losing effort.ADVERTISEMENT LOOK: Loisa Andalio, Ronnie Alonte unwind in Amanpulo for 3rd anniversary Mapua’s Andoy Estrella. Photo by Tristan Tamayo/INQUIRER.netWith nothing to lose, Mapua pulled off a 76-71 stunner over Perpetual to nab its first streak in the NCAA Season 93 men’s basketball tournament Thursday at Filoil Flying V Centre in San Juan.Andoy Estrella once again didn’t shy away from the spotlight, drilling the game-tying floater and the go-ahead trey in the final minute to hand the Cardinals their third win in 15 games this season.ADVERTISEMENT View comments
The Airports Authority of India (AAI), today has announced vacancies for the post of Junior Assistant in various airports in the state of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Goa.Candidates who are eligible and interested can now apply online visiting the official website at www.aai.aeroAs per the official notification on the website, the AAI will be hiring 170 junior assistants in fire services. The authority has said that a Computer Based Online Test will be conducted before making the final selection. Candidates will also have to undergo Medical Fitness/Physical Measurement Test, Driving Test and Physical Endurance Test.Important details of the vacancies:Name of post: Junior Assistant (Fire Services) NE-04 levelNumber of vacancies: 170 postsPay scale: Rs 12500-28500Opening date for online registration of applications: December 06, 2017 at 10:00 hoursLast date for submission of online application and online payment of application fee: December 31, 2017 up to 23:59 hoursEducational Qualification: 10th Pass plus 3 years approved regular diploma in Mechanical/Automobile/fire with minimum 50 per cent marks; OR 12th Pass (Regular Study) with 50 per cent marksAge Limit: Candidates must be between 18 to 30 years of age as on December 31, 2017. Upper age limit is relaxable by 5 years for SC/ST, 3 years for OBC candidatesWritten Examination pattern: The examination will be conducted for 100 marks. The minimum pass marks will be 50 out of 100 for General/OBC candidates and 40 out of 100 for SC and ST candidates. The time duration for Computer Based (Online) test will be two hoursFind the details about subjects below:Basic Arithmetic: 25 marksBasic Science: 25 marksElementary English/Grammar: 25 marksGeneral Knowledge: 25 marksSteps to apply for the post:Go to the official website, www.aai.aeroRegister yourself with valid email ID and phone numberWhile applying online candidate should keep the scanned copy of their passport size color photograph and signature (in format *.jpg or *.jpeg file only)Scanned copy of all relevant certificates/documents/details relating to eligibility criteria viz., educational qualification, caste certificate, driving license should be kept readyNow fill the application form with your detailsPay the application feesSubmit the applicationSave and take a print out of the application form for future referenceRead: Supreme Court directs UP to promote mainstream education for specially abled childrenadvertisementRead: Sports enthusiasts in schools to get financial aid by Delhi governmentFor more updates, follow India Today Education or you can write to us at [email protected]
The Buckeyes line up prior to taking the field for warmups before the Ohio State-Nebraska game on Oct. 14. Credit: Jack Westerheide | Photo Editor