NFL Week 6 picks: Raiders solve ‘Scotland Yard’, 49ers fall in Lambeau

first_imgLadies and gentlemen, start your engines for our NFL Week 6 picks:Raiders 31, Seahawks 28: Let’s make “Scotland Yard” a goal-line play-call in honor of Marshawn Lynch taking on the Seahawks in London. Line: Raiders +3Packers 33, 49ers 26: Kyle Shanahan remains 0-for-October as the 49ers coach. But if he culled 92 plays out of last game’s patchwork offense, he’ll mystically keep the 49ers close under Lambeau Field’s Monday night lights. Line: 49ers + 9 1/2Eagles 29, Giants 22: A Super Bowl …last_img

Warriors likes Draymond Green’s chance to win DPOY

first_imgOAKLAND – At every waking hour, Draymond Green has professed to think about one thing and one thing only. The Warriors’ forward wants to reclaim the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year award. In about five months, Green might receive his wish.“He’s always in that conversation,” Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. “There’s only a handful of guys that will be in that conversation every year. Draymond is one of them.”So is Utah center Rudy Gobert, who won last season’s DPOY award at Green’s expense. …last_img

Market volatility and my final 2016 corn positions

first_imgShare Facebook Twitter Google + LinkedIn Pinterest Market volatility has been reduced this past year for corn. This year’s low (so far) is nearly 30 cents higher than last year’s low while this year’s high was about 30 cents lower than last year. This kind of trend can be typical of abundant supply. Another sign of abundant supply is that spreads between futures contract months are wide, encouraging the market to store and hold grain.Storing old crop corn going into harvestLike many farmers, I still have old crop corn stored on my farm (33% of my production). Unlike most farmers in this situation my corn in storage is completely hedged with a short (sold) futures positions. Basis near my farm never rallied to the usual levels of the last 10 years. As harvest is approaching, I need to either move corn before harvest or continue to hold. Following are the questions that should be asked when making this decision. What is the market carry?Currently the spread from Sep ’17 to Sep ’18 is about 45 cents (where Sep ’17 is 45 cents lower than Sep ’18). This is the equivalent of making 12.5% return on investment ($.45 spread / $3.50 futures value). With an operating loan from the bank at 5%, it is more profitable for me to work with my bank and set up terms where I continue to sit on my grain in the bin and capture this carry instead of moving my grain and paying down the loan. How do you capture that market carry and get the bank to go along with it?The first and most important step is that I have to already have the grain sold/priced using futures. This allows me to show the bank that I have reduced risk and put a plan in place. Because I was already short Sep futures in my hedge account from my 2016 production, I had to get out of those futures by 8/30/17. Therefore, on 8/28/17 I bought back those Sep ‘17 futures and immediately sold Dec ‘17 futures at a 14.75-cent premium. Thus I have collected some of the market premium. Why Dec ‘17 futures and not Sep ‘18?I haven’t decided when I will actually set basis and move this old crop corn. I may need to move some before the end of the year, or late winter, maybe even next summer. If I hold until late summer of 2018 I could get 45 cents of market carry. Selecting Dec ‘17 futures helps me keep my options wide open. Is There Basis Risk?The basis price near my farm today is similar to levels I could lock into for later in the marketing year. To minimize risk, I could lock the basis in today and take the guaranteed market carry later. However, basis is the lowest I’ve seen in 10 years. It could go down further, but I’m not looking for that to happen with the information I have today. So, I expect to get the same basis as today or hopefully better down the road. Do you have enough available storage?I anticipated this possibility last spring; therefore, I put up additional storage. After calculating the expected ’17 harvest production, I can still store all of my upcoming harvest at home. With yields going up every year by about 1.5% in several years I’m going to need the extra storage anyway. In the meantime if the market is going to pay me to store grain I might as well listen and profit from it. My Final 2016 Corn PositionsWith a plan for my remaining basis levels secured I can calculate my final 2016 corn prices. Every year I analyze how well I did in futures, basis and market carry. Each of these marketing categories move independent of each other, so I want to identify each area of success and missed opportunity. I can then use this information to make better decisions in the future. Following details my final cash value by marketing category. FuturesMy first 2016 trade was placed in March of 2013 on about 5% of my production for $5.61. Following are other trades I placed against Dec ’16 futures:10% in 2014 for $4.30 avg.10% in summer 2015 for $4.40 avg.35% in Apr-Jul 2016 for $4.03 avg.20% in Oct-Dec 2016 for $3.42 avg.20% in summer 2017 for $3.77 avg.Combined and weighted, these values averaged $3.91 (brown in the chart below), which is better than any futures price available in the last year.But I also picked up additional premium by selling calls and working other option strategies during a sideways market. Those trades all totaled together increased my average sales values by 27 cents on my entire production. I applied this premium to my average futures value to arrive at an average futures sale price of $4.18 (red line on chart below)In hindsight, I should have sold more corn last summer at $4.40. However, I’m still pleased with these results. I didn’t hit any home runs throughout this, but I hit plenty of singles for a win. BasisAs mentioned above, 2016 corn basis was the lowest in 10 years. Consistent abundant supply kept pressure on prices.In early spring of 2017 I set my basis for summer delivery. At the time I was concerned a summer weather factor would create a strong futures rally, forcing basis to plummet and long lines at ethanol plants (like in previous years). None of this happened though.In hindsight I should have waited until the very end of August and delivered corn right before harvest. But considering carryout levels and trends of the past several years, expecting basis to reach it’s high in late Aug would have been a long shot.In the chart below I show where I set my basis.Notes: All bids are for on-farm pick up. Also, I remove the commercial freight rate off of the bids posted by the ethanol plant and shuttle loader from my farm and add back in any dividends I might acquire from selling to either location. I want to compare apples to apples when I look at bids. My final basis price was middle of the road. I could have done a bit better, but I could have certainly done worse.The chart also shows basis was higher in early 2017. If I would have set my basis for earlier delivery I would have missed out on my market carry premium, so that wasn’t a good choice for me. More details on this below. Market CarryMany farmers struggle with market carry. It can be a great way to guarantee additional premium, but to take advantage, I must have the grain sold to capture it.In November of 2016 I moved my Dec ’16 future position to Sep ‘17 futures and collected 30 cents of market carry (the red X on the green line in the chart below). By spring I set my basis for June/July delivery. Ultimately my basis sale was against July futures. By doing this, I missed/loss 8 cents when I had to rolled my Sep futures position back to July to offset the basis sale I made (the red X on the brown line in chart below). My total market carry ended up only as a net of 22 cents of premium.As I mentioned above, setting basis earlier would have taken away market carry premium. If I moved the corn in April/May, I would have lost 17 cents of carry instead of 8. A good rule of thumb, a slightly lower basis with more market carry is usually the better trade.Overall the market carry I collected was about on the average of what I have collected over the last 10 years. SummaryMy final corn cash price:$4.18 Futures+$.22 Market Carry+-$.44 Basis (farm pickup)$3.96 Cash PriceBased upon conversations with some farmers near my farm in southeast Nebraska, many took an average of $3.50 cash on their entire corn crop in 2016, so I’m pleased with my final price.Grain marketing is not simple or easy. If you want to do it right and minimize your risk, it can be complex and time-consuming. The problem is that farmers have a lot of responsibilities and far too little time. Therefore, the amount of time many farmers should be using to developing a strong grain marketing strategy is sacrificed. Instead these farmers prefer to make it quick and simple. By doing this though, these farmers add significantly more risk to their farm operation without even knowing or understanding because risk is hard to comprehend and define. To complicate this, occasional market timing luck by farmers can lead to false hubris that they have a solid grain marketing strategy when they probably don’t.In all trades for my farm the amount of risk I’m taking on is thoroughly analyzed and understood. By doing this, I may not hit home runs, but I’m getting on base most of the time while avoiding the strikeout. This keeps my farm operation profitable year after year.Jon grew up raising corn and soybeans on a farm near Beatrice, NE. Upon graduation from The University of Nebraska in Lincoln, he became a grain merchandiser and has been trading corn, soybeans and other grains for the last 18 years, building relationships with end-users in the process. After successfully marketing his father’s grain and getting his MBA, 10 years ago he started helping farmer clients market their grain based upon his principals of farmer education, reducing risk, understanding storage potential and using basis strategy to maximize individual farm operation profits. A big believer in farmer education of futures trading, Jon writes a weekly commentary to farmers interested in learning more and growing their farm operations.Trading of futures, options, swaps and other derivatives is risky and is not suitable for all persons. All of these investment products are leveraged, and you can lose more than your initial deposit. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful, and in accordance with applicable laws and regulations in such jurisdiction. The information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for independent research before making your investment decisions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC is merely providing this information for your general information and the information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision. The contents of this communication and any attachments are for informational purposes only and under no circumstances should they be construed as an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation to buy or sell any future, option, swap or other derivative. The sources for the information and any opinions in this communication are believed to be reliable, but Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy of such information or opinions. Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC and its principals and employees may take positions different from any positions described in this communication. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. He can be contacted at [email protected]last_img read more

The Well Known and Often Practiced Secret to Being Productive

first_imgThere is no secret to productivity. Everything you need to know about how to be more productive can be summed up in a single sentence: Do what is most important first and to completion. There is nothing else you need to know because that covers all the terrain. Why then, is productivity so elusive?If you do not know what your priority is, being productive can seem impossible. For most of us, we have too many competing priorities. If you have not clarified your values and decided what is most important, looking at all your roles, your projects, and your tasks will only cause you to feel overwhelmed. The word priority is singular. The word priorities is plural. Unless you have a hierarchy that determines what comes first and why, real productivity will elude you (more likely it will be scattered and busy, neither of which lead to productivity).After you know your priorities, you need a few other things to be productive. First, you need the discipline to eliminate distractions. I know something about you without knowing you. Your smartphone is less than 48 inches away from you now, if it’s that far. The little dings, chimes, and beeps that notify you that a text, email, or some new video has been released chip away at your attention. Worse still, you have your email with you every minute of the day as if it were the most important thing on earth (which I can assure you it is not).There is another type of discipline necessary to be truly productive. That discipline is your capacity for work. The greater your ability to devote your time and energy to what is your highest priority, the greater your results will be. You can develop the capacity to work by focusing on the discipline of 90-minute blocks. Blocking 90 minutes of time for your most important outcomes will provide you with around 75 minutes more time than most of the people you know, who will shift their focus to some distraction in 15 minutes or so.If you can develop the capacity to string together three blocks of 90 minutes over the course of a day the outcomes you produce will be far greater than almost anyone you know. If you can do the work of determining what your priorities are and rank them, you can decide where to invest those 90-minute blocks.What is your number one priority and how much time are you dedicating to producing that outcome?What distractions do you need to eliminate to be able to do focused, disciplined work that produces that outcome?Right now, go to your calendar and block 90 minutes tomorrow. If you complete that 90-minute block without interruption, send me an email and let me know how it felt and how much you got done.last_img read more

Gilas set to face China in 2017 Fiba Asia Cup group stage

first_imgView comments Pagasa: Storm intensifies as it nears PAR Roach would love a PacMay rematch, but unsure it would ever happen Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next The four teams in each group will play in the round-robin format, with the top squads earning an outright slot in the quarterfinals.The second and third-best squads will face off in a cross-over playoffs, with the victors completing the eight-team playoffs. The rest of the tournament will be played in a single elimination format to decide the champion.The 2017 Fiba Asia Cup will be in Beirut, Lebanon from August 8 to 20.ADVERTISEMENT BREAKING: Cop killed, 11 hurt in Misamis Oriental grenade blast Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Cayetano dares Lacson, Drilon to take lie-detector test: Wala akong kinita sa SEA Games Gilas Pilipinas guard Jayson Castro. Photo from Fiba.comGilas Pilipinas will begin its journey in the 2017 Fiba Asia Cup with a collision course with defending champion China, Qatar, and Iraq.The Philippines has been slotted in Group B of the continental championships in the draw ceremony held on Tuesday.ADVERTISEMENT BREAKING: Cop killed, 11 hurt in Misamis Oriental grenade blastcenter_img The group will see a rematch between the 2015 finalists, where China topped Gilas Pilipinas to win its 16th Asian championship.Powerhouse Iran banner Group A, where it will clash against Jordan, India, and Syria.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSSEA Games: Biñan football stadium stands out in preparedness, completionSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutoutSPORTSPrivate companies step in to help SEA Games hostingThis will also be the first time Oceania squads Australia and New Zealand will compete in the Asian bracket.New Zealand, joins Korea, Kazakhstan, and host country Lebanon in Group C, while Australia will battle Japan, Chinese Taipei, and Hong Kong are slotted in Group D. LATEST STORIES Every 18 seconds someone is diagnosed with HIV MOST READ Palace: Duterte to hear out security execs on alleged China control of NGCP BSP survey: PH banks see bright horizon amid dark global recession clouds Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students PLAY LIST 01:35Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City01:07Trump talks impeachment while meeting NCAA athletes Lacson: SEA Games fund put in foundation like ‘Napoles case’last_img read more